Wading Through the Data Swamp:
Program Evaluation 201

Module 4: Correlation - Page 10 of 16

What Do All the Numbers and Plots Mean?

The scatter plot shows that the pattern of scores falls fairly well onto a straight line. The strength of the linear relationship is calculated using the Pearson's correlation Coefficient. This test is most easily conducted using Excel or SPSS.

Since it would be cruel and unusual to ask you to calculate the Pearson's correlation coefficient by hand, we did this one for you (well, Excel did). The calculated r value is 0.502. This means there is a moderate correlation between program participation and negative change in alcohol use from pretest to posttest. In conclusion, Jack's program seems to show some evidence of success. As the amount of services increased, alcohol use decreased.

A persons's finger with a string tied around it. - FYI

Always look at the scatter plot before you calculate a Pearson's correlation.

Two variables may be strongly correlated, but their relationship may not be linear. A few outliers can affect a correlation a lot, making it high even though most of the scores are in a round cloud. So, whenever an evaluator tells you about a correlation, you should always ask if he has looked at the scatter plots.